IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 1:2
B8#15 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientB8 pick
64%50%
Color · 7 mapsedge Color +14%B8 · 12 maps
Dust2Color pick
73%67%
Color · 11 mapsedge Color +6%B8 · 8 maps
MirageB8 ban
64%21%
Color · 7 mapsedge Color +43%B8 · 10 maps
InfernoColor ban
50%56%
Color · 4 mapsedge B8 +6%B8 · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
44%60%
Color · 5 mapsedge B8 +16%B8 · 1 map
AnubisB8 ban
56%50%
Color · 5 mapsedge Color +6%B8 · 0 maps
NukeColor ban
50%67%
Color · 0 mapsedge B8 +17%B8 · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanColor remove Nuke
2. BanB8 remove Anubis
3. PickColor take Dust2
4. PickB8 take Ancient
5. BanB8 remove Mirage
6. BanColor remove Inferno
DeciderCache (44% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Color 61%B8 39%
The model gave 61% on Color — the map was taken by B8.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Color 85%B8 15%
The model gave 85% on Color — the map was taken by Color.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
Color 64%B8 36%
The model gave 64% on Color — the map was taken by B8.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 · 80%
Series resultB8 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3