ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Misa#115 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
50%51%
Color · 0 mapsnearly even -1%Misa · 31 map
MirageMisa ban
50%42%
Color · 0 mapsedge Color +8%Misa · 22 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%45%
Color · 0 mapsedge Color +5%Misa · 18 maps
NukeMisa ban
50%47%
Color · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Misa · 15 maps
CacheColor pick
50%40%
Color · 0 mapsedge Color +10%Misa · 11 maps
InfernoColor ban
50%46%
Color · 0 mapsnearly even +4%Misa · 9 maps
DefaultColor ban
50%56%
Color · 0 mapsedge Misa +6%Misa · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanColor remove Default
2. BanMisa remove Nuke
3. PickColor take Cache
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Mirage
6. BanColor remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
Color 42%Misa 58%
The model gave 58% on Misa — the map was taken by Color.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 65%
Series resultColor 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1