NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Color pick
62%71%
Color · 17 mapsedge SPARTA +9%SPARTA · 37 maps
Miragepossible decider
71%52%
Color · 10 mapsedge Color +19%SPARTA · 21 map
AncientSPARTA ban
62%45%
Color · 9 mapsedge Color +17%SPARTA · 18 maps
CacheSPARTA pick
36%53%
Color · 7 mapsedge SPARTA +17%SPARTA · 13 maps
InfernoColor ban
55%50%
Color · 7 mapsedge Color +5%SPARTA · 12 maps
NukeColor ban
50%50%
Color · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SPARTA · 16 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
55%43%
Color · 7 mapsedge Color +12%SPARTA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanColor remove Nuke
2. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
3. PickColor take Dust2
4. PickSPARTA take Cache
5. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
6. BanColor remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (71% / 52%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Color 37%SPARTA 63%
The model gave 63% on SPARTA — the map was taken by Color.
Mirageprediction correct16:13
Color 72%SPARTA 28%
The model gave 72% on Color — the map was taken by Color.
Model check result
Model favoriteColor · 66%
Series resultColor 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2