Intel EPIC48 · BO3
result vs prediction
CTRL#206 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2CTRL pick
40%50%
CTRL · 1 mapedge Glitchtech UK +10%Glitchtech UK · 0 maps
InfernoCTRL ban
40%50%
CTRL · 1 mapedge Glitchtech UK +10%Glitchtech UK · 0 maps
NukeGlitchtech UK ban
60%50%
CTRL · 1 mapedge CTRL +10%Glitchtech UK · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCTRL remove Inferno
2. BanGlitchtech UK remove Nuke
3. PickCTRL take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
CTRL 47%Glitchtech UK 53%
The model gave 53% on Glitchtech UK — the map was taken by Glitchtech UK.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
CTRL 63%Glitchtech UK 37%
The model gave 63% on CTRL — the map was taken by CTRL.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
CTRL 50%Glitchtech UK 50%
The model gave 50% on CTRL — the map was taken by Glitchtech UK.
Model check result
Model favoriteGlitchtech UK · 50%
Series resultGlitchtech UK 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3