NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
UPGRADE#64 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BET-M#65 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BET-M ban
50%33%
UPGRADE · 0 mapsedge UPGRADE +17%BET-M · 11 maps
InfernoBET-M pick
50%54%
UPGRADE · 0 mapsnearly even -4%BET-M · 9 maps
MirageUPGRADE ban
50%45%
UPGRADE · 0 mapsedge UPGRADE +5%BET-M · 7 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%45%
UPGRADE · 0 mapsedge UPGRADE +5%BET-M · 7 maps
AncientBET-M ban
50%20%
UPGRADE · 0 mapsedge UPGRADE +30%BET-M · 6 maps
AnubisUPGRADE ban
50%63%
UPGRADE · 0 mapsedge BET-M +13%BET-M · 4 maps
DefaultUPGRADE pick
60%50%
UPGRADE · 1 mapedge UPGRADE +10%BET-M · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUPGRADE remove Anubis
2. BanBET-M remove Ancient
3. PickUPGRADE take Default
4. PickBET-M take Inferno
5. BanBET-M remove Dust2
6. BanUPGRADE remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
UPGRADE 52%BET-M 48%
The model gave 52% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by BET-M.
Anubisprediction missed13:10
UPGRADE 40%BET-M 60%
The model gave 60% on BET-M — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
UPGRADE 67%BET-M 33%
The model gave 67% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by BET-M.
Model check result
Model favoriteBET-M · 52%
Series resultBET-M 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3