ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE Prospects#140 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoCYBERSHOKE Prospects pick
60%40%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 1 mapedge CYBERSHOKE Prospects +20%Hashiras · 1 map
AnubisHashiras ban
60%50%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 1 mapedge CYBERSHOKE Prospects +10%Hashiras · 0 maps
DefaultHashiras pick
60%50%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 1 mapedge CYBERSHOKE Prospects +10%Hashiras · 0 maps
Dust2Hashiras ban
40%50%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 1 mapedge Hashiras +10%Hashiras · 0 maps
NukeCYBERSHOKE Prospects ban
50%40%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE Prospects +10%Hashiras · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE Prospects remove Nuke
2. BanHashiras remove Dust2
3. PickCYBERSHOKE Prospects take Inferno
4. PickHashiras take Default
5. BanHashiras remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
CYBERSHOKE Prospects 43%Hashiras 57%
The model gave 57% on Hashiras — the map was taken by Hashiras.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
CYBERSHOKE Prospects 57%Hashiras 43%
The model gave 57% on CYBERSHOKE Prospects — the map was taken by Hashiras.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE Prospects · 56%
Series resultHashiras 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2