BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
aAa#132 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2CYBERSHOKE ban
40%40%
CYBERSHOKE · 1 mapnearly even +0%aAa · 1 map
MirageaAa ban
50%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%aAa · 0 maps
NukeCYBERSHOKE pick
50%33%
CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +17%aAa · 2 maps
AncientaAa pick
40%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 1 mapedge aAa +10%aAa · 0 maps
InfernoCYBERSHOKE ban
50%40%
CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +10%aAa · 1 map
OverpassaAa ban
40%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 1 mapedge aAa +10%aAa · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
2. BanaAa remove Overpass
3. PickCYBERSHOKE take Nuke
4. PickaAa take Ancient
5. BanaAa remove Mirage
6. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:3
CYBERSHOKE 47%aAa 53%
The model gave 53% on aAa — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Ancientprediction missed13:1
CYBERSHOKE 43%aAa 57%
The model gave 57% on aAa — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 60%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2