WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientCYBERSHOKE pick
47%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 15 mapsnearly even -3%CRUISER AURORA · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
58%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 15 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +8%CRUISER AURORA · 0 maps
MirageCRUISER AURORA ban
64%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 7 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +14%CRUISER AURORA · 0 maps
NukeCRUISER AURORA pick
55%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 7 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +5%CRUISER AURORA · 0 maps
AnubisCYBERSHOKE ban
33%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 5 mapsedge CRUISER AURORA +17%CRUISER AURORA · 0 maps
CacheCYBERSHOKE ban
63%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 4 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +13%CRUISER AURORA · 0 maps
DefaultCRUISER AURORA ban
67%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 2 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +17%CRUISER AURORA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Anubis
2. BanCRUISER AURORA remove Default
3. PickCYBERSHOKE take Ancient
4. PickCRUISER AURORA take Nuke
5. BanCRUISER AURORA remove Mirage
6. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (58% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
CYBERSHOKE 55%CRUISER AURORA 45%
The model gave 55% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
CYBERSHOKE 50%CRUISER AURORA 50%
The model gave 50% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 71%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2