NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2CYBERSHOKE ban
53%63%
CYBERSHOKE · 13 mapsedge ex-RUBY +10%ex-RUBY · 20 maps
Mirageex-RUBY ban
53%41%
CYBERSHOKE · 11 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +12%ex-RUBY · 13 maps
AncientCYBERSHOKE pick
64%40%
CYBERSHOKE · 10 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +24%ex-RUBY · 11 maps
Nukeex-RUBY pick
50%80%
CYBERSHOKE · 2 mapsedge ex-RUBY +30%ex-RUBY · 16 maps
OverpassCYBERSHOKE ban
40%57%
CYBERSHOKE · 6 mapsedge ex-RUBY +17%ex-RUBY · 10 maps
Anubisex-RUBY ban
43%60%
CYBERSHOKE · 3 mapsedge ex-RUBY +17%ex-RUBY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Overpass
2. Banex-RUBY remove Anubis
3. PickCYBERSHOKE take Ancient
4. Pickex-RUBY take Nuke
5. Banex-RUBY remove Mirage
6. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
CYBERSHOKE 18%ex-RUBY 82%
The model gave 82% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
CYBERSHOKE 43%ex-RUBY 57%
The model gave 57% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 52%
Series resultex-RUBY 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2