BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientCYBERSHOKE pick
40%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 1 mapedge ex-Zero Tenacity +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
Mirageex-Zero Tenacity ban
60%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 1 mapedge CYBERSHOKE +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
OverpassCYBERSHOKE ban
40%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 1 mapedge ex-Zero Tenacity +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Overpass
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Mirage
3. PickCYBERSHOKE take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
CYBERSHOKE 57%ex-Zero Tenacity 43%
The model gave 57% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
CYBERSHOKE 53%ex-Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 56%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2