BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked ban
50%57%
CYBERSHOKE · 2 mapsedge Lavked +7%Lavked · 3 maps
Dust2CYBERSHOKE pick
50%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Lavked · 2 maps
NukeLavked pick
50%63%
CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsedge Lavked +13%Lavked · 4 maps
AncientCYBERSHOKE ban
50%60%
CYBERSHOKE · 2 mapsedge Lavked +10%Lavked · 1 map
InfernoCYBERSHOKE ban
50%57%
CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsedge Lavked +7%Lavked · 3 maps
OverpassLavked ban
40%60%
CYBERSHOKE · 1 mapedge Lavked +20%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
2. BanLavked remove Overpass
3. PickCYBERSHOKE take Dust2
4. PickLavked take Nuke
5. BanLavked remove Mirage
6. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
CYBERSHOKE 40%Lavked 60%
The model gave 60% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Ancientprediction correct4:13
CYBERSHOKE 43%Lavked 57%
The model gave 57% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 52%
Series resultLavked 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2