Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
megoshort#179 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
52%60%
CYBERSHOKE · 19 mapsedge megoshort +8%megoshort · 6 maps
Miragemegoshort pick
59%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 13 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +9%megoshort · 10 maps
AncientCYBERSHOKE pick
63%38%
CYBERSHOKE · 15 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +25%megoshort · 4 maps
OverpassCYBERSHOKE ban
50%40%
CYBERSHOKE · 8 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +10%megoshort · 1 map
Nukemegoshort ban
50%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 8 mapsnearly even +0%megoshort · 0 maps
Defaultmegoshort ban
60%33%
CYBERSHOKE · 1 mapedge CYBERSHOKE +27%megoshort · 5 maps
AnubisCYBERSHOKE ban
38%60%
CYBERSHOKE · 4 mapsedge megoshort +22%megoshort · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Anubis
2. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
3. PickCYBERSHOKE take Ancient
4. Pickmegoshort take Mirage
5. Banmegoshort remove Default
6. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (52% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:1
CYBERSHOKE 39%megoshort 61%
The model gave 61% on megoshort — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
CYBERSHOKE 76%megoshort 24%
The model gave 76% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by megoshort.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
CYBERSHOKE 59%megoshort 41%
The model gave 59% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 79%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3