European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WBT#108 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%64%
CYBERSHOKE · 16 mapsedge WBT +14%WBT · 7 maps
MirageWBT pick
56%60%
CYBERSHOKE · 12 mapsnearly even -4%WBT · 6 maps
AncientCYBERSHOKE pick
59%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 13 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +9%WBT · 4 maps
OverpassCYBERSHOKE ban
46%67%
CYBERSHOKE · 9 mapsedge WBT +21%WBT · 2 maps
AnubisWBT ban
43%43%
CYBERSHOKE · 3 mapsnearly even +0%WBT · 3 maps
NukeWBT ban
38%40%
CYBERSHOKE · 4 mapsnearly even -2%WBT · 1 map
DefaultCYBERSHOKE ban
50%60%
CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsedge WBT +10%WBT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Overpass
2. BanWBT remove Anubis
3. PickCYBERSHOKE take Ancient
4. PickWBT take Mirage
5. BanWBT remove Nuke
6. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Default
DeciderDust2 (50% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
CYBERSHOKE 62%WBT 38%
The model gave 62% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Dust2prediction missed13:2
CYBERSHOKE 34%WBT 66%
The model gave 66% on WBT — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 60%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2