1xBet FRAG Season 17 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Game Point#239 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientDark Moon ban
33%40%
Dark Moon · 2 mapsedge Game Point +7%Game Point · 1 map
Dust2Game Point pick
29%50%
Dark Moon · 3 mapsedge Game Point +21%Game Point · 0 maps
AnubisDark Moon pick
50%40%
Dark Moon · 0 mapsedge Dark Moon +10%Game Point · 1 map
MirageGame Point ban
40%50%
Dark Moon · 1 mapedge Game Point +10%Game Point · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDark Moon remove Ancient
2. BanGame Point remove Mirage
3. PickDark Moon take Anubis
4. PickGame Point take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
Dark Moon 31%Game Point 69%
The model gave 69% on Game Point — the map was taken by Dark Moon.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
Dark Moon 40%Game Point 60%
The model gave 60% on Game Point — the map was taken by Game Point.
Overpassprediction correct13:8
Dark Moon 50%Game Point 50%
The model gave 50% on Dark Moon — the map was taken by Dark Moon.
Model check result
Model favoriteGame Point · 50%
Series resultDark Moon 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3