ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:1
WBT Academy#120 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Dark Moon pick
56%67%
Dark Moon · 5 mapsedge WBT Academy +11%WBT Academy · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%57%
Dark Moon · 4 mapsedge WBT Academy +7%WBT Academy · 3 maps
NukeDark Moon ban
40%38%
Dark Moon · 1 mapnearly even +2%WBT Academy · 4 maps
AncientWBT Academy pick
33%50%
Dark Moon · 2 mapsedge WBT Academy +17%WBT Academy · 2 maps
AnubisDark Moon ban
50%38%
Dark Moon · 0 mapsedge Dark Moon +12%WBT Academy · 4 maps
InfernoWBT Academy ban
50%50%
Dark Moon · 2 mapsnearly even +0%WBT Academy · 0 maps
DefaultWBT Academy ban
60%50%
Dark Moon · 1 mapedge Dark Moon +10%WBT Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDark Moon remove Nuke
2. BanWBT Academy remove Inferno
3. PickDark Moon take Dust2
4. PickWBT Academy take Ancient
5. BanWBT Academy remove Default
6. BanDark Moon remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Dark Moon 57%WBT Academy 43%
The model gave 57% on Dark Moon — the map was taken by WBT Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT Academy · 66%
Series resultWBT Academy 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1