KOKONISTER Pavlodar Ertis Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
DEPO#120 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ALTAY#196 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientALTAY ban
50%50%
DEPO · 8 mapsnearly even +0%ALTAY · 0 maps
Dust2ALTAY pick
33%50%
DEPO · 5 mapsedge ALTAY +17%ALTAY · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
56%60%
DEPO · 5 mapsnearly even -4%ALTAY · 1 map
OverpassDEPO pick
75%50%
DEPO · 4 mapsedge DEPO +25%ALTAY · 0 maps
AnubisALTAY ban
50%50%
DEPO · 2 mapsnearly even +0%ALTAY · 0 maps
InfernoDEPO ban
40%50%
DEPO · 1 mapedge ALTAY +10%ALTAY · 0 maps
NukeDEPO ban
50%40%
DEPO · 0 mapsedge DEPO +10%ALTAY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDEPO remove Nuke
2. BanALTAY remove Ancient
3. PickDEPO take Overpass
4. PickALTAY take Dust2
5. BanALTAY remove Anubis
6. BanDEPO remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (56% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
DEPO 31%ALTAY 69%
The model gave 69% on ALTAY — the map was taken by DEPO.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
DEPO 48%ALTAY 52%
The model gave 52% on ALTAY — the map was taken by DEPO.
Model check result
Model favoriteDEPO · 66%
Series resultDEPO 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2