1xBet FRAG Season 18 · BO1
result vs prediction
DEPO#120 in the world · loss 3:13series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 3:13
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPAQT ban
60%50%
DEPO · 11 mapsedge DEPO +10%PAQT · 0 maps
MirageDEPO ban
53%50%
DEPO · 11 mapsnearly even +3%PAQT · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
57%50%
DEPO · 10 mapsedge DEPO +7%PAQT · 0 maps
CachePAQT ban
60%50%
DEPO · 6 mapsedge DEPO +10%PAQT · 0 maps
InfernoDEPO ban
50%50%
DEPO · 6 mapsnearly even +0%PAQT · 0 maps
AnubisDEPO ban
50%50%
DEPO · 2 mapsnearly even +0%PAQT · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDEPO remove Anubis
2. BanPAQT remove Cache
3. BanDEPO remove Inferno
4. BanPAQT remove Ancient
5. BanDEPO remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
DEPO 57%PAQT 43%
The model gave 57% on DEPO — the map was taken by PAQT.
Model check result
Model favoriteDEPO · 70%
Series resultPAQT 3:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1