ESEA Season 58 North America Finals · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Without a Roof#81 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoDesi Boyz ban
50%69%
Desi Boyz · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +19%Without a Roof · 12 maps
MirageWithout a Roof pick
50%63%
Desi Boyz · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +13%Without a Roof · 12 maps
AncientDesi Boyz ban
50%50%
Desi Boyz · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 10 maps
Dust2Desi Boyz pick
50%40%
Desi Boyz · 0 mapsedge Desi Boyz +10%Without a Roof · 6 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
50%50%
Desi Boyz · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 6 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
50%60%
Desi Boyz · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +10%Without a Roof · 1 map
Cachepossible decider
50%40%
Desi Boyz · 0 mapsedge Desi Boyz +10%Without a Roof · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDesi Boyz remove Inferno
2. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
3. PickDesi Boyz take Dust2
4. PickWithout a Roof take Mirage
5. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
6. BanDesi Boyz remove Ancient
DeciderCache (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed1:13
Desi Boyz 57%Without a Roof 43%
The model gave 57% on Desi Boyz — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
Desi Boyz 53%Without a Roof 47%
The model gave 53% on Desi Boyz — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 57%
Series resultWithout a Roof 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2