NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
DETONATE#193 in the world · win 13:9series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 13:9
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
44%57%
DETONATE · 5 mapsedge FarmVille +13%FarmVille · 3 maps
InfernoFarmVille ban
44%33%
DETONATE · 5 mapsedge DETONATE +11%FarmVille · 2 maps
AnubisDETONATE ban
30%50%
DETONATE · 6 mapsedge FarmVille +20%FarmVille · 0 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
40%43%
DETONATE · 1 mapnearly even -3%FarmVille · 3 maps
CacheFarmVille ban
50%40%
DETONATE · 2 mapsedge DETONATE +10%FarmVille · 1 map
NukeFarmVille ban
43%50%
DETONATE · 3 mapsedge FarmVille +7%FarmVille · 0 maps
AncientDETONATE ban
60%50%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge DETONATE +10%FarmVille · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDETONATE remove Ancient
2. BanFarmVille remove Nuke
3. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
4. BanFarmVille remove Inferno
5. BanDETONATE remove Anubis
6. BanFarmVille remove Cache
DeciderMirage (44% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
DETONATE 62%FarmVille 38%
The model gave 62% on DETONATE — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteDETONATE · 50%
Series resultDETONATE 13:9
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1