NSTLGA Emerald Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
DETONATE#169 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
42%27%
DETONATE · 15 mapsedge DETONATE +15%FarmVille · 11 maps
MirageDETONATE ban
42%50%
DETONATE · 8 mapsedge FarmVille +8%FarmVille · 8 maps
CacheDETONATE pick
54%50%
DETONATE · 9 mapsnearly even +4%FarmVille · 6 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
50%41%
DETONATE · 0 mapsedge DETONATE +9%FarmVille · 13 maps
AncientFarmVille pick
44%67%
DETONATE · 5 mapsedge FarmVille +23%FarmVille · 5 maps
NukeFarmVille ban
54%50%
DETONATE · 9 mapsnearly even +4%FarmVille · 0 maps
AnubisFarmVille ban
36%60%
DETONATE · 7 mapsedge FarmVille +24%FarmVille · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
2. BanFarmVille remove Nuke
3. PickDETONATE take Cache
4. PickFarmVille take Ancient
5. BanFarmVille remove Anubis
6. BanDETONATE remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (42% / 27%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:4
DETONATE 30%FarmVille 70%
The model gave 70% on FarmVille — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
DETONATE 26%FarmVille 74%
The model gave 74% on FarmVille — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteDETONATE · 61%
Series resultDETONATE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2