ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
DETONATE#196 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageIowa Stormboar pick
36%60%
DETONATE · 7 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +24%Iowa Stormboar · 16 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
42%30%
DETONATE · 15 mapsedge DETONATE +12%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
Nukepossible decider
58%36%
DETONATE · 8 mapsedge DETONATE +22%Iowa Stormboar · 7 maps
CacheDETONATE pick
58%56%
DETONATE · 8 mapsnearly even +2%Iowa Stormboar · 5 maps
AncientDETONATE ban
44%55%
DETONATE · 5 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +11%Iowa Stormboar · 7 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
50%63%
DETONATE · 0 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +13%Iowa Stormboar · 12 maps
AnubisIowa Stormboar ban
36%29%
DETONATE · 7 mapsedge DETONATE +7%Iowa Stormboar · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
3. PickDETONATE take Cache
4. PickIowa Stormboar take Mirage
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Anubis
6. BanDETONATE remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (58% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed19:22
DETONATE 73%Iowa Stormboar 27%
The model gave 73% on DETONATE — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
DETONATE 25%Iowa Stormboar 75%
The model gave 75% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Cacheprediction missed14:16
DETONATE 53%Iowa Stormboar 47%
The model gave 53% on DETONATE — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteIowa Stormboar · 53%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3