ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
DETONATE#196 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NuTorious#202 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisDETONATE pick
38%40%
DETONATE · 4 mapsnearly even -2%NuTorious · 1 map
AncientDETONATE ban
60%43%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge DETONATE +17%NuTorious · 3 maps
MirageDETONATE ban
67%50%
DETONATE · 2 mapsedge DETONATE +17%NuTorious · 2 maps
NukeNuTorious ban
43%40%
DETONATE · 3 mapsnearly even +3%NuTorious · 1 map
InfernoNuTorious pick
40%40%
DETONATE · 1 mapnearly even +0%NuTorious · 1 map
Dust2NuTorious ban
40%50%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge NuTorious +10%NuTorious · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDETONATE remove Ancient
2. BanNuTorious remove Dust2
3. PickDETONATE take Anubis
4. PickNuTorious take Inferno
5. BanNuTorious remove Nuke
6. BanDETONATE remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
DETONATE 53%NuTorious 47%
The model gave 53% on DETONATE — the map was taken by NuTorious.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
DETONATE 64%NuTorious 36%
The model gave 64% on DETONATE — the map was taken by NuTorious.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuTorious · 55%
Series resultNuTorious 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2