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ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
DETONATE#196 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Villainous#198 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisVillainous pick
38%56%
DETONATE · 4 mapsedge Villainous +18%Villainous · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
33%60%
DETONATE · 2 mapsedge Villainous +27%Villainous · 6 maps
MirageVillainous ban
57%33%
DETONATE · 3 mapsedge DETONATE +24%Villainous · 2 maps
NukeDETONATE ban
43%60%
DETONATE · 3 mapsedge Villainous +17%Villainous · 1 map
AncientDETONATE ban
60%40%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge DETONATE +20%Villainous · 1 map
Dust2Villainous ban
40%40%
DETONATE · 1 mapnearly even +0%Villainous · 1 map
CacheDETONATE pick
50%60%
DETONATE · 0 mapsedge Villainous +10%Villainous · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDETONATE remove Ancient
2. BanVillainous remove Dust2
3. PickDETONATE take Cache
4. PickVillainous take Anubis
5. BanVillainous remove Mirage
6. BanDETONATE remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (33% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:3
DETONATE 27%Villainous 73%
The model gave 73% on Villainous — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Anubisprediction correct6:13
DETONATE 30%Villainous 70%
The model gave 70% on Villainous — the map was taken by Villainous.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
DETONATE 73%Villainous 27%
The model gave 73% on DETONATE — the map was taken by Villainous.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillainous · 68%
Series resultVillainous 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3