NSTLGA League Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
DETONATE#196 in the world · win 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
50%40%
DETONATE · 2 mapsedge DETONATE +10%Wanted Goons · 6 maps
AncientWanted Goons pick
50%56%
DETONATE · 0 mapsedge Wanted Goons +6%Wanted Goons · 5 maps
MirageDETONATE pick
60%38%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge DETONATE +22%Wanted Goons · 4 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
40%57%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge Wanted Goons +17%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
OverpassDETONATE ban
50%57%
DETONATE · 0 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
InfernoWanted Goons ban
50%33%
DETONATE · 0 mapsedge DETONATE +17%Wanted Goons · 2 maps
AnubisWanted Goons ban
40%50%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge Wanted Goons +10%Wanted Goons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDETONATE remove Overpass
2. BanWanted Goons remove Inferno
3. PickDETONATE take Mirage
4. PickWanted Goons take Ancient
5. BanWanted Goons remove Anubis
6. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:9
DETONATE 43%Wanted Goons 57%
The model gave 57% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Ancientprediction missed16:14
DETONATE 42%Wanted Goons 58%
The model gave 58% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteWanted Goons · 55%
Series resultDETONATE 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2