AR3NA Epicbet Open Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Diamant#210 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Phantom Academy#173 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageDiamant pick
50%57%
Diamant · 0 mapsedge Phantom Academy +7%Phantom Academy · 3 maps
AncientDiamant ban
50%60%
Diamant · 0 mapsedge Phantom Academy +10%Phantom Academy · 1 map
InfernoPhantom Academy ban
50%40%
Diamant · 0 mapsedge Diamant +10%Phantom Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDiamant remove Ancient
2. BanPhantom Academy remove Inferno
3. PickDiamant take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
Diamant 40%Phantom Academy 60%
The model gave 60% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by Phantom Academy.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
Diamant 53%Phantom Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on Diamant — the map was taken by Phantom Academy.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom Academy · 58%
Series resultPhantom Academy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2