DFRAG Open Series 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageDing Cuts pick
43%50%
Ding Cuts · 3 mapsedge Ground Zero +7%Ground Zero · 6 maps
NukeGround Zero pick
40%50%
Ding Cuts · 1 mapedge Ground Zero +10%Ground Zero · 6 maps
InfernoDing Cuts ban
50%50%
Ding Cuts · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Ground Zero · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%38%
Ding Cuts · 0 mapsedge Ding Cuts +12%Ground Zero · 4 maps
AnubisDing Cuts ban
50%43%
Ding Cuts · 0 mapsedge Ding Cuts +7%Ground Zero · 3 maps
AncientGround Zero ban
60%50%
Ding Cuts · 1 mapedge Ding Cuts +10%Ground Zero · 0 maps
OverpassGround Zero ban
60%50%
Ding Cuts · 1 mapedge Ding Cuts +10%Ground Zero · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDing Cuts remove Anubis
2. BanGround Zero remove Ancient
3. PickDing Cuts take Mirage
4. PickGround Zero take Nuke
5. BanGround Zero remove Overpass
6. BanDing Cuts remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
Ding Cuts 46%Ground Zero 54%
The model gave 54% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Nukeprediction correct1:13
Ding Cuts 37%Ground Zero 63%
The model gave 63% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 59%
Series resultGround Zero 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2