European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
DONSTU#221 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Endless Journey#172 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisEndless Journey ban
53%40%
DONSTU · 13 mapsedge DONSTU +13%Endless Journey · 1 map
Dust2DONSTU ban
43%50%
DONSTU · 10 mapsedge Endless Journey +7%Endless Journey · 2 maps
InfernoEndless Journey pick
36%43%
DONSTU · 7 mapsedge Endless Journey +7%Endless Journey · 3 maps
AncientEndless Journey ban
50%50%
DONSTU · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Endless Journey · 2 maps
NukeDONSTU ban
43%63%
DONSTU · 3 mapsedge Endless Journey +20%Endless Journey · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%67%
DONSTU · 1 mapedge Endless Journey +7%Endless Journey · 2 maps
CacheDONSTU pick
67%50%
DONSTU · 2 mapsedge DONSTU +17%Endless Journey · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDONSTU remove Nuke
2. BanEndless Journey remove Anubis
3. PickDONSTU take Cache
4. PickEndless Journey take Inferno
5. BanEndless Journey remove Ancient
6. BanDONSTU remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (60% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
DONSTU 66%Endless Journey 34%
The model gave 66% on DONSTU — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
DONSTU 40%Endless Journey 60%
The model gave 60% on Endless Journey — the map was taken by Endless Journey.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
DONSTU 50%Endless Journey 50%
The model gave 50% on DONSTU — the map was taken by Endless Journey.
Model check result
Model favoriteEndless Journey · 55%
Series resultEndless Journey 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3