Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
DONSTU#221 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FORZE Reload#70 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisDONSTU pick
52%50%
DONSTU · 19 mapsnearly even +2%FORZE Reload · 0 maps
Dust2FORZE Reload pick
36%50%
DONSTU · 18 mapsedge FORZE Reload +14%FORZE Reload · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
47%50%
DONSTU · 11 mapsnearly even -3%FORZE Reload · 0 maps
InfernoDONSTU ban
43%50%
DONSTU · 10 mapsedge FORZE Reload +7%FORZE Reload · 0 maps
CacheFORZE Reload ban
50%50%
DONSTU · 8 mapsnearly even +0%FORZE Reload · 0 maps
NukeDONSTU ban
38%50%
DONSTU · 4 mapsedge FORZE Reload +12%FORZE Reload · 0 maps
DefaultFORZE Reload ban
60%50%
DONSTU · 1 mapedge DONSTU +10%FORZE Reload · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDONSTU remove Nuke
2. BanFORZE Reload remove Default
3. PickDONSTU take Anubis
4. PickFORZE Reload take Dust2
5. BanFORZE Reload remove Cache
6. BanDONSTU remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (47% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed6:13
DONSTU 53%FORZE Reload 47%
The model gave 53% on DONSTU — the map was taken by FORZE Reload.
Nukeprediction correct4:13
DONSTU 35%FORZE Reload 65%
The model gave 65% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by FORZE Reload.
Model check result
Model favoriteDONSTU · 62%
Series resultFORZE Reload 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2