ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
DONSTU#221 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2MOUZ NXT ban
35%23%
DONSTU · 16 mapsedge DONSTU +12%MOUZ NXT · 9 maps
AnubisDONSTU pick
46%43%
DONSTU · 20 mapsnearly even +3%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
46%54%
DONSTU · 9 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +8%MOUZ NXT · 9 maps
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
27%62%
DONSTU · 7 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +35%MOUZ NXT · 9 maps
AncientDONSTU ban
43%75%
DONSTU · 10 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +32%MOUZ NXT · 4 maps
MirageDONSTU ban
50%29%
DONSTU · 0 mapsedge DONSTU +21%MOUZ NXT · 10 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
50%50%
DONSTU · 8 mapsnearly even +0%MOUZ NXT · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDONSTU remove Mirage
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
3. PickDONSTU take Anubis
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Dust2
6. BanDONSTU remove Ancient
DeciderCache (46% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed14:16
DONSTU 56%MOUZ NXT 44%
The model gave 56% on DONSTU — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
DONSTU 17%MOUZ NXT 83%
The model gave 83% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 57%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2