NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Drama#142 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ENCE#114 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageDrama pick
57%53%
Drama · 3 mapsnearly even +4%ENCE · 13 maps
AncientENCE ban
75%22%
Drama · 4 mapsedge Drama +53%ENCE · 5 maps
InfernoENCE pick
50%64%
Drama · 2 mapsedge ENCE +14%ENCE · 7 maps
NukeENCE ban
50%46%
Drama · 0 mapsnearly even +4%ENCE · 9 maps
CacheDrama ban
60%55%
Drama · 1 mapedge Drama +5%ENCE · 7 maps
AnubisDrama ban
40%60%
Drama · 1 mapedge ENCE +20%ENCE · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
Drama · 1 mapedge Drama +10%ENCE · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDrama remove Anubis
2. BanENCE remove Ancient
3. PickDrama take Mirage
4. PickENCE take Inferno
5. BanENCE remove Nuke
6. BanDrama remove Cache
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Drama 51%ENCE 49%
The model gave 51% on Drama — the map was taken by Drama.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
Drama 57%ENCE 43%
The model gave 57% on Drama — the map was taken by Drama.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 52%
Series resultDrama 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2