ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
Drama#142 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ZOTIX#179 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientZOTIX pick
75%57%
Drama · 4 mapsedge Drama +18%ZOTIX · 3 maps
MirageDrama pick
63%40%
Drama · 4 mapsedge Drama +23%ZOTIX · 1 map
InfernoDrama ban
50%50%
Drama · 2 mapsnearly even +0%ZOTIX · 2 maps
Dust2possible decider
33%40%
Drama · 2 mapsedge ZOTIX +7%ZOTIX · 1 map
AnubisDrama ban
40%60%
Drama · 1 mapedge ZOTIX +20%ZOTIX · 1 map
CacheZOTIX ban
60%50%
Drama · 1 mapedge Drama +10%ZOTIX · 0 maps
DefaultZOTIX ban
60%50%
Drama · 1 mapedge Drama +10%ZOTIX · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDrama remove Anubis
2. BanZOTIX remove Cache
3. PickDrama take Mirage
4. PickZOTIX take Ancient
5. BanZOTIX remove Default
6. BanDrama remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (33% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
Drama 67%ZOTIX 33%
The model gave 67% on Drama — the map was taken by ZOTIX.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
Drama 53%ZOTIX 47%
The model gave 53% on Drama — the map was taken by Drama.
Dust2prediction correct13:16
Drama 43%ZOTIX 57%
The model gave 57% on ZOTIX — the map was taken by ZOTIX.
Model check result
Model favoriteDrama · 65%
Series resultZOTIX 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3