Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
DUSTYloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fluxo#56 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFluxo pick
50%60%
DUSTY · 0 mapsedge Fluxo +10%Fluxo · 16 maps
Dust2DUSTY pick
50%50%
DUSTY · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Fluxo · 12 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%50%
DUSTY · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Fluxo · 6 maps
InfernoFluxo ban
50%50%
DUSTY · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Fluxo · 6 maps
MirageDUSTY ban
50%70%
DUSTY · 0 mapsedge Fluxo +20%Fluxo · 6 maps
CacheDUSTY ban
50%56%
DUSTY · 0 mapsedge Fluxo +6%Fluxo · 5 maps
AncientFluxo ban
50%40%
DUSTY · 0 mapsedge DUSTY +10%Fluxo · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDUSTY remove Mirage
2. BanFluxo remove Ancient
3. PickDUSTY take Dust2
4. PickFluxo take Nuke
5. BanFluxo remove Inferno
6. BanDUSTY remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct1:13
DUSTY 33%Fluxo 67%
The model gave 67% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Nukeprediction correct1:13
DUSTY 37%Fluxo 63%
The model gave 63% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 79%
Series resultFluxo 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2