Icelandic Esports LD Challengers Series 1 Finals · BO5
result vs prediction
DUSTYwin 3:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Þórloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageÞór ban
50%50%
DUSTY · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Þór · 0 maps
NukeDUSTY pick
50%50%
DUSTY · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Þór · 0 maps
Dust2DUSTY ban
40%50%
DUSTY · 1 mapedge Þór +10%Þór · 0 maps
InfernoÞór pick
40%50%
DUSTY · 1 mapedge Þór +10%Þór · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDUSTY remove Dust2
2. BanÞór remove Mirage
3. PickDUSTY take Nuke
4. PickÞór take Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
DUSTY 47%Þór 53%
The model gave 53% on Þór — the map was taken by Þór.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
DUSTY 53%Þór 47%
The model gave 53% on DUSTY — the map was taken by DUSTY.
Cacheprediction missed13:7
DUSTY 47%Þór 53%
The model gave 53% on Þór — the map was taken by DUSTY.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
DUSTY 53%Þór 47%
The model gave 53% on DUSTY — the map was taken by DUSTY.
Model check result
Model favoriteÞór · 50%
Series resultDUSTY 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 4