DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
DXA#220 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Arcade#198 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2DXA ban
43%40%
DXA · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Arcade · 1 map
InfernoArcade ban
50%50%
DXA · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Arcade · 0 maps
AncientDXA pick
57%50%
DXA · 3 mapsedge DXA +7%Arcade · 0 maps
AnubisArcade pick
29%50%
DXA · 3 mapsedge Arcade +21%Arcade · 0 maps
OverpassArcade ban
57%50%
DXA · 3 mapsedge DXA +7%Arcade · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDXA remove Dust2
2. BanArcade remove Inferno
3. PickDXA take Ancient
4. PickArcade take Anubis
5. BanArcade remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
DXA 50%Arcade 50%
The model gave 50% on Arcade — the map was taken by Arcade.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
DXA 53%Arcade 47%
The model gave 53% on DXA — the map was taken by Arcade.
Model check result
Model favoriteDXA · 59%
Series resultArcade 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2