DFRAG Open Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
DXA#220 in the world · win 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMasked Regime pick
40%50%
DXA · 1 mapedge Masked Regime +10%Masked Regime · 0 maps
Dust2DXA ban
50%60%
DXA · 0 mapsedge Masked Regime +10%Masked Regime · 1 map
MirageMasked Regime ban
50%40%
DXA · 0 mapsedge DXA +10%Masked Regime · 1 map
NukeMasked Regime ban
50%40%
DXA · 0 mapsedge DXA +10%Masked Regime · 1 map
OverpassDXA pick
40%50%
DXA · 1 mapedge Masked Regime +10%Masked Regime · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDXA remove Dust2
2. BanMasked Regime remove Mirage
3. PickDXA take Overpass
4. PickMasked Regime take Ancient
5. BanMasked Regime remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
DXA 37%Masked Regime 63%
The model gave 63% on Masked Regime — the map was taken by DXA.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
DXA 43%Masked Regime 57%
The model gave 57% on Masked Regime — the map was taken by DXA.
Model check result
Model favoriteDXA · 51%
Series resultDXA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2