Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageG2 Ares pick
46%61%
EAC · 9 mapsedge G2 Ares +15%G2 Ares · 19 maps
Ancientpossible decider
43%44%
EAC · 10 mapsnearly even -1%G2 Ares · 12 maps
InfernoEAC ban
29%52%
EAC · 3 mapsedge G2 Ares +23%G2 Ares · 17 maps
Dust2EAC ban
40%48%
EAC · 1 mapedge G2 Ares +8%G2 Ares · 17 maps
OverpassEAC pick
50%43%
EAC · 8 mapsedge EAC +7%G2 Ares · 10 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
38%50%
EAC · 12 mapsedge G2 Ares +12%G2 Ares · 0 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
57%50%
EAC · 3 mapsedge EAC +7%G2 Ares · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Dust2
2. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
3. PickEAC take Overpass
4. PickG2 Ares take Mirage
5. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
6. BanEAC remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (43% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
EAC 24%G2 Ares 76%
The model gave 76% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
EAC 52%G2 Ares 48%
The model gave 52% on EAC — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 57%
Series resultG2 Ares 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2