BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GenOne#95 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
50%56%
EAC · 0 mapsedge GenOne +6%GenOne · 12 maps
NukeEAC ban
50%54%
EAC · 0 mapsnearly even -4%GenOne · 9 maps
AncientGenOne ban
50%45%
EAC · 0 mapsedge EAC +5%GenOne · 7 maps
InfernoEAC ban
50%70%
EAC · 0 mapsedge GenOne +20%GenOne · 6 maps
OverpassEAC pick
50%38%
EAC · 0 mapsedge EAC +12%GenOne · 4 maps
AnubisGenOne ban
50%60%
EAC · 0 mapsedge GenOne +10%GenOne · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
50%40%
EAC · 0 mapsedge EAC +10%GenOne · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Inferno
2. BanGenOne remove Anubis
3. PickEAC take Overpass
4. PickGenOne take Dust2
5. BanGenOne remove Ancient
6. BanEAC remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
EAC 43%GenOne 57%
The model gave 57% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Overpassprediction missed10:13
EAC 65%GenOne 35%
The model gave 65% on EAC — the map was taken by GenOne.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 58%
Series resultGenOne 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2