Hotspawn Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · win 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilmix#204 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLilmix ban
46%33%
EAC · 20 mapsedge EAC +13%Lilmix · 2 maps
AncientLilmix pick
52%57%
EAC · 17 mapsedge Lilmix +5%Lilmix · 3 maps
AnubisEAC ban
50%60%
EAC · 14 mapsedge Lilmix +10%Lilmix · 1 map
CacheEAC pick
57%38%
EAC · 10 mapsedge EAC +19%Lilmix · 4 maps
InfernoEAC ban
38%33%
EAC · 9 mapsedge EAC +5%Lilmix · 5 maps
NukeLilmix ban
50%50%
EAC · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Lilmix · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%67%
EAC · 3 mapsedge Lilmix +10%Lilmix · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Anubis
2. BanLilmix remove Nuke
3. PickEAC take Cache
4. PickLilmix take Ancient
5. BanLilmix remove Mirage
6. BanEAC remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (57% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
EAC 42%Lilmix 58%
The model gave 58% on Lilmix — the map was taken by EAC.
Mirageprediction correct13:2
EAC 66%Lilmix 34%
The model gave 66% on EAC — the map was taken by EAC.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 75%
Series resultEAC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2