ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · win 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Misa#115 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2EAC ban
40%50%
EAC · 1 mapedge Misa +10%Misa · 30 maps
MirageMisa ban
53%39%
EAC · 11 mapsedge EAC +14%Misa · 19 maps
NukeEAC ban
41%47%
EAC · 13 mapsedge Misa +6%Misa · 15 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%47%
EAC · 6 mapsedge EAC +13%Misa · 13 maps
CacheEAC pick
58%38%
EAC · 8 mapsedge EAC +20%Misa · 9 maps
InfernoMisa pick
20%54%
EAC · 6 mapsedge Misa +34%Misa · 9 maps
AncientMisa ban
39%50%
EAC · 14 mapsedge Misa +11%Misa · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Dust2
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. PickEAC take Cache
4. PickMisa take Inferno
5. BanMisa remove Mirage
6. BanEAC remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (60% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed8:13
EAC 66%Misa 34%
The model gave 66% on EAC — the map was taken by Misa.
Cacheprediction correct16:14
EAC 67%Misa 33%
The model gave 67% on EAC — the map was taken by EAC.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
EAC 64%Misa 36%
The model gave 64% on EAC — the map was taken by EAC.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 70%
Series resultEAC 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3