ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OG#203 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientOG ban
48%56%
EAC · 17 mapsedge OG +8%OG · 5 maps
MirageEAC pick
58%50%
EAC · 15 mapsedge EAC +8%OG · 6 maps
NukeEAC ban
47%40%
EAC · 13 mapsedge EAC +7%OG · 6 maps
Overpasspossible decider
55%60%
EAC · 7 mapsedge OG +5%OG · 6 maps
CacheOG ban
62%29%
EAC · 9 mapsedge EAC +33%OG · 3 maps
InfernoOG pick
27%44%
EAC · 7 mapsedge OG +17%OG · 5 maps
Dust2EAC ban
40%69%
EAC · 1 mapedge OG +29%OG · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Dust2
2. BanOG remove Cache
3. PickEAC take Mirage
4. PickOG take Inferno
5. BanOG remove Ancient
6. BanEAC remove Nuke
DeciderOverpass (55% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
EAC 29%OG 71%
The model gave 71% on OG — the map was taken by OG.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
EAC 61%OG 39%
The model gave 61% on EAC — the map was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 56%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2