BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageEAC pick
50%40%
EAC · 0 mapsedge EAC +10%Rune Eaters · 6 maps
AncientRune Eaters pick
40%50%
EAC · 1 mapedge Rune Eaters +10%Rune Eaters · 4 maps
Dust2EAC ban
50%63%
EAC · 0 mapsedge Rune Eaters +13%Rune Eaters · 4 maps
NukeRune Eaters ban
43%40%
EAC · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Rune Eaters · 1 map
OverpassRune Eaters ban
50%40%
EAC · 2 mapsedge EAC +10%Rune Eaters · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
EAC · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
DefaultEAC ban
50%60%
EAC · 0 mapsedge Rune Eaters +10%Rune Eaters · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Dust2
2. BanRune Eaters remove Overpass
3. PickEAC take Mirage
4. PickRune Eaters take Ancient
5. BanRune Eaters remove Nuke
6. BanEAC remove Default
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
EAC 57%Rune Eaters 43%
The model gave 57% on EAC — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Ancientprediction correct12:16
EAC 43%Rune Eaters 57%
The model gave 57% on Rune Eaters — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 71%
Series resultRune Eaters 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2