NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
BBL#62 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Black Phoenix#80 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
50%57%
BBL · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +7%Black Phoenix · 26 maps
MirageBBL pick
50%45%
BBL · 0 mapsedge BBL +5%Black Phoenix · 16 maps
NukeBlack Phoenix ban
50%50%
BBL · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Black Phoenix · 14 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
50%14%
BBL · 0 mapsedge BBL +36%Black Phoenix · 10 maps
CacheBBL ban
50%64%
BBL · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +14%Black Phoenix · 10 maps
InfernoBBL ban
50%64%
BBL · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +14%Black Phoenix · 10 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
BBL · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Black Phoenix · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBBL remove Cache
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
3. PickBBL take Mirage
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Nuke
6. BanBBL remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:16
BBL 33%Black Phoenix 67%
The model gave 67% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
BBL 53%Black Phoenix 47%
The model gave 53% on BBL — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBBL · 62%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2