Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FOKUS#48 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFOKUS pick
57%58%
Echo · 3 mapsnearly even -1%FOKUS · 8 maps
OverpassEcho pick
44%67%
Echo · 5 mapsedge FOKUS +23%FOKUS · 5 maps
Dust2Echo ban
50%62%
Echo · 0 mapsedge FOKUS +12%FOKUS · 9 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%50%
Echo · 1 mapedge Echo +10%FOKUS · 6 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
33%43%
Echo · 2 mapsedge FOKUS +10%FOKUS · 3 maps
InfernoEcho ban
50%63%
Echo · 0 mapsedge FOKUS +13%FOKUS · 4 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
60%50%
Echo · 1 mapedge Echo +10%FOKUS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEcho remove Dust2
2. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
3. PickEcho take Overpass
4. PickFOKUS take Ancient
5. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
6. BanEcho remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Echo 63%FOKUS 37%
The model gave 63% on Echo — the map was taken by Echo.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Echo 46%FOKUS 54%
The model gave 54% on FOKUS — the map was taken by Echo.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 59%
Series resultEcho 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2