ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
EMPIRE#172 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aether#215 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeEMPIRE ban
33%50%
EMPIRE · 2 mapsedge Aether +17%Aether · 0 maps
Dust2Aether ban
60%50%
EMPIRE · 1 mapedge EMPIRE +10%Aether · 0 maps
InfernoEMPIRE pick
60%50%
EMPIRE · 1 mapedge EMPIRE +10%Aether · 0 maps
MirageAether pick
40%50%
EMPIRE · 1 mapedge Aether +10%Aether · 0 maps
OverpassAether ban
60%50%
EMPIRE · 1 mapedge EMPIRE +10%Aether · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEMPIRE remove Nuke
2. BanAether remove Dust2
3. PickEMPIRE take Inferno
4. PickAether take Mirage
5. BanAether remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed1:13
EMPIRE 63%Aether 37%
The model gave 63% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by Aether.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
EMPIRE 47%Aether 53%
The model gave 53% on Aether — the map was taken by Aether.
Model check result
Model favoriteEMPIRE · 59%
Series resultAether 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2