ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
EMPIRE#176 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DETONATE#196 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
40%35%
EMPIRE · 6 mapsedge EMPIRE +5%DETONATE · 13 maps
NukeEMPIRE pick
63%56%
EMPIRE · 4 mapsedge EMPIRE +7%DETONATE · 5 maps
AncientEMPIRE ban
43%44%
EMPIRE · 3 mapsnearly even -1%DETONATE · 5 maps
MirageDETONATE ban
50%30%
EMPIRE · 2 mapsedge EMPIRE +20%DETONATE · 6 maps
CacheDETONATE pick
40%60%
EMPIRE · 1 mapedge DETONATE +20%DETONATE · 6 maps
AnubisEMPIRE ban
50%30%
EMPIRE · 0 mapsedge EMPIRE +20%DETONATE · 6 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
57%50%
EMPIRE · 3 mapsedge EMPIRE +7%DETONATE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEMPIRE remove Ancient
2. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
3. PickEMPIRE take Nuke
4. PickDETONATE take Cache
5. BanDETONATE remove Mirage
6. BanEMPIRE remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (40% / 35%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
EMPIRE 60%DETONATE 40%
The model gave 60% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
EMPIRE 28%DETONATE 72%
The model gave 72% on DETONATE — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteEMPIRE · 53%
Series resultDETONATE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2