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NSTLGA Emerald Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
EMPIRE#182 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageEMPIRE ban
38%55%
EMPIRE · 4 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +17%Iowa Stormboar · 18 maps
Dust2EMPIRE pick
56%59%
EMPIRE · 5 mapsnearly even -3%Iowa Stormboar · 13 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%42%
EMPIRE · 6 mapsedge EMPIRE +18%Iowa Stormboar · 8 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
40%30%
EMPIRE · 6 mapsedge EMPIRE +10%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
AncientEMPIRE ban
50%55%
EMPIRE · 4 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +5%Iowa Stormboar · 7 maps
CacheIowa Stormboar pick
33%60%
EMPIRE · 2 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +27%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
AnubisIowa Stormboar ban
50%29%
EMPIRE · 0 mapsedge EMPIRE +21%Iowa Stormboar · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEMPIRE remove Mirage
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
3. PickEMPIRE take Dust2
4. PickIowa Stormboar take Cache
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Anubis
6. BanEMPIRE remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (60% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
EMPIRE 48%Iowa Stormboar 52%
The model gave 52% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by EMPIRE.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
EMPIRE 31%Iowa Stormboar 69%
The model gave 69% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
EMPIRE 47%Iowa Stormboar 53%
The model gave 53% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by EMPIRE.
Model check result
Model favoriteEMPIRE · 56%
Series resultEMPIRE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3