ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
EMPIRE#176 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
regain#199 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernoregain pick
40%53%
EMPIRE · 6 mapsedge regain +13%regain · 13 maps
MirageEMPIRE ban
43%31%
EMPIRE · 3 mapsedge EMPIRE +12%regain · 12 maps
Dust2EMPIRE pick
63%36%
EMPIRE · 4 mapsedge EMPIRE +27%regain · 10 maps
AncientEMPIRE ban
43%67%
EMPIRE · 3 mapsedge regain +24%regain · 8 maps
Nukeregain ban
60%50%
EMPIRE · 6 mapsedge EMPIRE +10%regain · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%56%
EMPIRE · 0 mapsedge regain +6%regain · 5 maps
Anubisregain ban
50%50%
EMPIRE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%regain · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEMPIRE remove Ancient
2. Banregain remove Nuke
3. PickEMPIRE take Dust2
4. Pickregain take Inferno
5. Banregain remove Anubis
6. BanEMPIRE remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
EMPIRE 77%regain 23%
The model gave 77% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by regain.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
EMPIRE 25%regain 75%
The model gave 75% on regain — the map was taken by EMPIRE.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
EMPIRE 62%regain 38%
The model gave 62% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteEMPIRE · 53%
Series resultregain 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3