PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Open Qualifier 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
EMPIRE#172 in the world · win 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoEMPIRE ban
44%50%
EMPIRE · 5 mapsedge Unreal Nightmare +6%Unreal Nightmare · 0 maps
NukeUnreal Nightmare ban
57%50%
EMPIRE · 3 mapsedge EMPIRE +7%Unreal Nightmare · 0 maps
CacheUnreal Nightmare pick
40%40%
EMPIRE · 1 mapnearly even +0%Unreal Nightmare · 1 map
Dust2EMPIRE pick
50%50%
EMPIRE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Unreal Nightmare · 0 maps
MirageEMPIRE ban
40%40%
EMPIRE · 1 mapnearly even +0%Unreal Nightmare · 1 map
AncientUnreal Nightmare ban
60%50%
EMPIRE · 1 mapedge EMPIRE +10%Unreal Nightmare · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEMPIRE remove Mirage
2. BanUnreal Nightmare remove Ancient
3. PickEMPIRE take Dust2
4. PickUnreal Nightmare take Cache
5. BanUnreal Nightmare remove Nuke
6. BanEMPIRE remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed3:13
EMPIRE 63%Unreal Nightmare 37%
The model gave 63% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by Unreal Nightmare.
Mirageprediction missed13:2
EMPIRE 47%Unreal Nightmare 53%
The model gave 53% on Unreal Nightmare — the map was taken by EMPIRE.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
EMPIRE 57%Unreal Nightmare 43%
The model gave 57% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by EMPIRE.
Model check result
Model favoriteEMPIRE · 56%
Series resultEMPIRE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3