Elisa Esports BreakOut Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BC.Game#60 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
44%50%
ENCE · 12 mapsedge BC.Game +6%BC.Game · 4 maps
AncientBC.Game ban
55%50%
ENCE · 7 mapsedge ENCE +5%BC.Game · 0 maps
NukeBC.Game ban
60%60%
ENCE · 6 mapsnearly even +0%BC.Game · 1 map
AnubisENCE pick
71%40%
ENCE · 3 mapsedge ENCE +31%BC.Game · 1 map
CacheBC.Game pick
67%67%
ENCE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%BC.Game · 2 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
40%29%
ENCE · 1 mapedge ENCE +11%BC.Game · 3 maps
InfernoENCE ban
50%50%
ENCE · 4 mapsnearly even +0%BC.Game · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Dust2
2. BanBC.Game remove Ancient
3. PickENCE take Anubis
4. PickBC.Game take Cache
5. BanBC.Game remove Nuke
6. BanENCE remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
ENCE 41%BC.Game 59%
The model gave 59% on BC.Game — the map was taken by BC.Game.
Nukeprediction missed13:16
ENCE 53%BC.Game 47%
The model gave 53% on ENCE — the map was taken by BC.Game.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 51%
Series resultBC.Game 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2