NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Enjoy#199 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageENCE ban
41%50%
ENCE · 13 mapsedge Enjoy +9%Enjoy · 10 maps
AncientEnjoy pick
55%58%
ENCE · 7 mapsnearly even -3%Enjoy · 8 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
40%50%
ENCE · 1 mapedge Enjoy +10%Enjoy · 10 maps
NukeENCE pick
55%38%
ENCE · 7 mapsedge ENCE +17%Enjoy · 4 maps
Cachepossible decider
67%50%
ENCE · 2 mapsedge ENCE +17%Enjoy · 8 maps
AnubisEnjoy ban
71%63%
ENCE · 3 mapsedge ENCE +8%Enjoy · 4 maps
InfernoEnjoy ban
50%43%
ENCE · 4 mapsedge ENCE +7%Enjoy · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Dust2
2. BanEnjoy remove Inferno
3. PickENCE take Nuke
4. PickEnjoy take Ancient
5. BanEnjoy remove Anubis
6. BanENCE remove Mirage
DeciderCache (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed10:13
ENCE 64%Enjoy 36%
The model gave 64% on ENCE — the map was taken by Enjoy.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
ENCE 60%Enjoy 40%
The model gave 60% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
ENCE 41%Enjoy 59%
The model gave 59% on Enjoy — the map was taken by Enjoy.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 54%
Series resultEnjoy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3